If you grow anything in Stockton — vegetables, fruit trees, herbs, anything — you know the weather isn’t just small talk. It determines when you plant, when you water, and whether your tomatoes thrive or your garlic bolts early. So how has 2026 been treating us compared to a typical year? The short answer: it’s been a tale of two halves, with some real consequences for the garden and the region’s water supply heading into summer.

Stockton’s Baseline: What a “Normal” Year Looks Like

Before diving into 2026, it helps to know what we’re comparing against. Stockton has a classic Central Valley Mediterranean climate — mild, wet winters and long, bone-dry summers. In a typical year:

• Annual rainfall: About 17 inches, almost entirely falling between November and April
• Sunny days: Around 257 per year
• Temperature range: Lows in the upper 30s°F in December/January, highs pushing 94°F in July
• Wettest month: February, averaging about 2.13 inches of rain
• Driest stretch: June through September, with July averaging just 0.04 inches — essentially zero

It’s a climate that rewards plants adapted to summer drought and rewards gardeners who plan their watering carefully. But 2026 has pushed even those norms.

The Water Year Split: A Wet Fall, Then a Very Dry Winter

California tracks precipitation on a “water year” that runs October through September. The 2025–2026 water year started off promising. October through December 2025 brought above-normal rainfall to most of the state — 62% of the California-Nevada region received more than 130% of normal precipitation during those three months. Reservoirs filled up, rivers ran well, and heading into January it looked like a solid water year was shaping up.

Then things flipped hard. January through March 2026 turned dry — 88% of the region received less than 70% of normal precipitation during that stretch. March 2026 was one of the driest and warmest months in the 126-year historical record. That combination of no rain and high heat had a particularly damaging effect: it triggered rapid, early snowmelt throughout the Sierra Nevada.

By April 1st, California’s statewide snowpack water equivalent was the second lowest on record going back to 1981. In Nevada it was the lowest ever recorded. Snowmelt was running between half a month and two months earlier than normal at stations throughout the region. For the Central Valley — which relies heavily on Sierra snowmelt to recharge rivers and reservoirs through summer — that’s a problem. Early melt means less water available when crops and gardens need it most, in July and August.

Where We Stand Now: Drought Returns to California

As of late April, about 35% of the California-Nevada region is in active drought (D1–D4 on the U.S. Drought Monitor scale), and an additional 45% is classified as Abnormally Dry (D0). Interior California — including the Central Valley — has seen temperatures running 3–5°F above normal for the water year to date. That warmer-than-normal baseline accelerates evaporation from soils and increases plant water demand, meaning even average rainfall would feel like less than average.

The one buffer: major California reservoirs are still near or above their historical averages, thanks to that wet October–December period. That’s good news for municipal water supplies and agricultural water districts in the short term. But seasonal runoff forecasts for April through July are looking significantly below normal — the Lower Colorado River’s unregulated inflow into Lake Powell is projected at just 22% of median. We’re drawing down reserves faster than they’re being replenished.

June 2026 in Stockton: Right on Average — For Now

Interestingly, despite the broader drought picture, June in Stockton is tracking very close to historical norms on the thermometer. Daytime highs are sitting around 88°F (31°C), with overnight lows near 57°F (14°C). Historical June averages for Stockton are a high of 90°F and a low of about 57°F — so we’re essentially right on target for temperature this month.

Rainfall? Almost none, as expected — June averages just 3mm (about 0.12 inches) with roughly one rainy day in the entire month. Sunshine is up around 13 hours per day, humidity is moderate at around 51%, and the dry season is fully in effect. For gardeners, this is normal June behavior. The difference this year isn’t what June looks like — it’s what came before it and what’s coming after.

What to Expect Through Summer and Fall

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center is forecasting warmer-than-normal conditions for California through May, June, and July. With precipitation forecasts showing equal chances of above, near, or below normal (which in climate-speak for a dry season basically means “don’t count on rain”), the heat is where the story is.

In Stockton, July already averages a high of 94°F with lows around 59°F. Warmer-than-normal summers push highs routinely above 100°F during heat events — and those events are expected to come more frequently this year. The soil will be working against you: the dry, warm winter and spring means soils came into summer with lower moisture reserves than usual, so roots are starting from a deficit.

There’s also an elevated wildfire risk in northern California through June and July, which doesn’t directly affect Stockton gardens but does affect air quality — something worth watching if you’re growing crops that stress under smoke or if you have young seedlings outside.

Fall could bring some relief. Early forecasts suggest cooler-than-normal fall temperatures with the chance of above-normal rainfall returning to parts of northern California. If that holds, it extends the fall growing window meaningfully — potentially giving us a longer, more forgiving season for cool-weather crops like lettuce, kale, brassicas, and root vegetables.

What It Means for the Garden

A year like this one changes how you should be managing your garden, especially heading into peak summer.

Water deeply, not frequently. With soils entering summer drier than normal, shallow watering won’t cut it. Deep, infrequent watering — enough to reach 12–18 inches into the soil — builds stronger root systems and trains plants to find moisture lower down, where it’s more stable. Drip irrigation directly at the root zone is significantly more efficient than overhead watering, especially when temperatures spike.

Mulch is your best friend. A 3–4 inch layer of organic mulch (straw, wood chips, shredded leaves) dramatically slows soil moisture evaporation. On a 100°F day, mulched soil can stay 10–15°F cooler than bare soil, which also protects root systems from heat stress.

Lean into heat-tolerant crops. This summer is made for Stockton’s natural strengths: tomatoes, peppers, eggplant, sweet potatoes, basil, Armenian cucumber, and dry-farmed varieties that can handle the stress. If you’re trying to grow cool-weather crops through the summer — spinach, cilantro, lettuce — shade cloth and consistent water are essential, and you might just want to wait for fall.

Watch for heat stress signs. Wilting in the morning (before 10 a.m.) is a sign of real drought stress — not just afternoon heat wilt, which is normal. Leaf curl, blossom drop, and fruit cracking can all indicate inconsistent watering during heat events. Water in the early morning to minimize evaporation and give plants time to absorb moisture before peak heat.

Plan for a fall garden now. If the cooler fall forecast holds, you’ll want to have seeds or starts ready to go in September. Brassicas (broccoli, cabbage, kale), root vegetables (carrots, beets, turnips), and leafy greens all do well in Stockton’s fall. Start them indoors in late July or early August to have transplant-ready plants when temperatures drop.

The Bigger Picture

2026 is shaping up to be a year that reminds us how much weather variability matters in the Central Valley. A promising wet fall, a historically dry and warm winter, record-low snowpack, and a summer forecast that leans hot and dry — it’s the kind of year that tests garden planning and water management alike. The region’s reservoirs are buying time, but the pressure on water supplies will increase through summer.

We’ll keep tracking conditions through the season and reporting on what we’re seeing in the garden here at From Seed to Table. In the meantime, keep the mulch thick, the drip lines running, and the fall seed catalog handy.